Dr Megan Dee, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Faculty of Arts and Humanities
The international system is undergoing profound change. Long‑standing assumptions about global governance and the liberal rules‑based order are being challenged by intensifying geopolitical competition, shifting power dynamics, ideological polarisation and mounting difficulties in addressing transnational problems such as climate change, nuclear risks and economic instability. In this context, multilateralism—cooperation among multiple states, often through formal institutions—has come under increasing strain. Recognising these pressures, the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee launched a Multilateralism Inquiry to assess the health of the multilateral system, identify the forces shaping its future, and consider implications for UK foreign policy.
In evidence to the Committee, Megan Dee, Senior Lecturer in International Politics at the University of Stirling, argues that although today’s multilateral system faces a potent polycrisis of power, effectiveness and legitimacy, multilateralism itself remains resilient. Decline in some institutions may be expected, but multilateralism is likely to adapt and evolve—including through the practice of minilateralism.
Multilateralism’s polycrisis
At the core of the current crisis is power. Shifts in the global distribution of power have produced persistent great‑power competition, heightened uncertainty and increased geopolitical risk. The retreat of the United States from its traditional leadership role, Russia’s resurgence and China’s expanding influence have created a more contested and ideologically divided international environment.
This crisis of power feeds directly into a crisis of effectiveness. Polarisation and geopolitical rivalry generate stagnation and deadlock in multilateral decision‑making. Institutions established in the twentieth century to facilitate coordination and collective action—from nuclear non‑proliferation and disarmament to climate governance, trade and development—are struggling to deliver on their mandates. Financial pressures, withdrawals and political obstruction further undermine their capacity.
These dynamics in turn produce a crisis of legitimacy. When institutions appear unable to solve problems, deliver outcomes or command compliance, governments and citizens begin to question their authority, relevance and value.
Decline is only one possible future
Although concerns about multilateralism are justified, predictions of its collapse are premature. Multilateral institutions have proved remarkably durable throughout modern history and remain central to how states pursue cooperation.
Over the coming decade multilateralism will face three possible trajectories. The first is decline, marked by continued institutional paralysis, reduced resources and the potential for lower participation in formal bodies.
The second is adaptation. Even where major structural reform is politically difficult, multilateral institutions retain important convening functions. Multilateral institutions can moreover modernise procedures, streamline operations and improve coordination. Current efforts within the United Nations to update working practices illustrate this adaptive potential.
The third trajectory is evolution. States may be more sceptical of formal multilateral institutions, but they will not abandon multilateral cooperation. Instead, multilateral practices may evolve to include more regional arrangements, informal dialogues and smaller diplomatic coalitions operating alongside established institutions.
Effective minilateralism
One of the most significant developments in recent years is the rise of minilateralism—small groups of willing and relevant states working together to address specific global problems. Crucially, minilateralism is not a replacement for, nor a threat to, multilateralism. Its relationship to the wider system depends on how it is used, whether inside existing multilateral institutions or outside them.
Crucially, minilateralism can complement multilateral institutions when utilised strategically and reflectively. Effective minilateral arrangements should be representative, bringing together diverse and representative states rather than exclusive clubs; flexible, responding to specific intergovernmental problems without duplicating existing multilateral efforts; transparent in their activities; and accountable to wider multilateral processes.
If these principles are followed, minilateralism can sustain dialogue, build consensus and advance cooperation in an increasingly fragmented international system. Rather than signalling the end of multilateral institutions, minilateralism may represent one way multilateral cooperation evolves to meet twenty‑first‑century challenges.
*This blog and the evidence provided to the Inquiry draws on research published by the author in Contemporary Security Policy.